By Neil Frazer for NATO Watch
The international conference for Afghan donors in Tokyo on 8 July resulted in pledges totalling $16billion in development aid, which is to be delivered over four years. This outcome is broadly in line with expectations for the conference; the $4billion per year in the package is slightly more than the $3.9billion that had been forecast. The aid package comes with stringent conditions for Afghanistan; release of the funds is dependent on governance reforms and efforts to halt the endemic corruption in the country.
In their opening statements both Afghan President Hamid Karzai and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon acknowledged the fragility of the progress Afghanistan has made in the last three years. The UN Secretary General also highlighted the risk of allowing a “failure to invest in governance, justice, human rights, employment and social development” to“negate investment and sacrifices” made over the last ten years. For his part Mr Karzai committed to implement the reform program demanded by the donor nations and in particular to fight corruption with “strong resolve”.
Despite the larger than expected donation package grave concerns remain about Afghanistan’s stability after 2014, particularly regarding the ability of Afghan Security Forces to operate effectively without ISAF support (as indicated in recent reports in the New York Times and the New Yorker). A deteriorating security environment could easily undermine the long term development program agreed at Tokyo and derail even these short-term financial commitments. There are also serious questions over the Afghan government’s willingness and ability to undertake many of the reforms it has committed to. The Tokyo donors have waved their cheque books and talked tough at Karzai, and have generally presented a brave face about Afghanistan’s future. The reality is much more uncertain, however.