By Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch
According to a White House statement on 25 November, Ambassador Susan Rice, President Obama's National Security Adviser, told President Hamid Karzai during a working dinner in Kabul that the United States welcomes the Loya Jirga's (Grand Council) endorsement of a US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA).
Despite the advice by Afghanistan’s consultative body of elders and leaders that a BSA should be signed this year, President Karzai outlined new conditions for signing the agreement and indicated he is not prepared to sign it promptly. He added that it would be better for his successor to sign it after the April 2014 President Election.
Ambassador Rice stressed that deferring agreement until after next year's election is not an option as it would not provide the United States and NATO Allies with the clarity necessary to plan for a post-2014 military presence. She reiterated that, “without a prompt signature, the USwould have no choice but to initiate planning for a post-2014 future in which there would be no US or NATO troop presence in Afghanistan”.
According to the New York Times, the US Ambassador to Afghanistan, James Cunningham voiced objection to a demand that all Guantanamo detainees be released and US forces’ counterterrorism raids on private Afghan homes be banned. Aimal Faizi, Mr. Karzai’s spokesman, said:
"That made the president very angry; his reaction was very strong and intense. The president said we cannot separate the recommendations of the Loya Jirga from the BSA now — we cannot pick and choose. All those recommendations have to be taken seriously."
Ambassador Cunningham insisted that US law governs the release of the prisoners and that the issue had no bearing on a BSA. US and ISAF Commander, General Dunford assured President Karzai that he had given instructions to his forces to take all necessary measures to avoid civilian casualties and that the commanders will be acting in accordance with the recommendations of the Loya Jirga and what is said in the BSA, according to Faizi. He added that President Karzai had expressed his hope that Ambassador Rice would convey his views to President Obama and then return to negotiate the issues further. However, Ambassador Rice indicated that the ‘negotiations had been concluded’.
"That made the president very angry; his reaction was very strong and intense. The president said we cannot separate the recommendations of the Loya Jirga from the BSA now — we cannot pick and choose. All those recommendations have to be taken seriously."
Ambassador Cunningham insisted that US law governs the release of the prisoners and that the issue had no bearing on a BSA. US and ISAF Commander, General Dunford assured President Karzai that he had given instructions to his forces to take all necessary measures to avoid civilian casualties and that the commanders will be acting in accordance with the recommendations of the Loya Jirga and what is said in the BSA, according to Faizi. He added that President Karzai had expressed his hope that Ambassador Rice would convey his views to President Obama and then return to negotiate the issues further. However, Ambassador Rice indicated that the ‘negotiations had been concluded’.
Prior to the Loya Jirga meeting, US Secretary of State John Kerry had said:
I can't imagine a more compelling affirmation from the Afghan people themselves of their commitment to a long term partnership with the United States and our international partners. The critical next step must be to get the BSA signed in short order, and put into motion an agreement which will lay a firm foundation for our two countries to continue working together toward a more secure and prosperous future for Afghanistan.
US Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan James Dobbins told PBS NewsHour: "I think delaying the signing to April will make it much more difficult for us to make our commitments. It'll make it more difficult - and make it virtually impossible for other countries to make their commitments. I think it'll have a long-term, deleterious impact on the scale of international assistance to Afghanistan.”
And White House spokesman Josh Earnest said President Obama wants the security agreement approved and signed by Afghanistan's government by the end of this year. If signed by both parties, the BSA should remain in force until the end of 2024 unless terminated by mutual agreement or by either party with two years' written notice. An Obama Administration official, ‘speaking on condition of anonymity’ said that once the agreement gets final approval, the President would decide within weeks how many US troops would remain in Afghanistan post-2014.
Also prior to the Loya Jirga meeting, President Karzai said the BSA could only be signed “when our elections are conducted, correctly and with dignity”. This point was reaffirmed by Aimal Faizi later when he said that "once we are assured of peace and security, and transparent elections, then President Karzai will sign this pact after the election if this is approved by the Loya Jirga and passed by the Parliament”.
However, former President and Chairman of the Meshrano Jirga, or House of Elders, Sebghatullah Mujadidi, said that "Karzai doesn't have the right to say this, he is making a mistake. They (the Americans) have accepted all the conditions set out by him and us. It would hurt Afghanistan if he does not accept it”.
Reuters suggests that Karzai is wary of being too closely associated with the security agreement, which would formally invite foreign forces to stay in Afghanistan, adding that Faizi did not explain how Karzai intended to sign the document after a new president had been elected. Karzai told the Loya Jirga that he broadly supported the BSA but said: "My trust with America is not good. I don't trust them and they don't trust me. During the past 10 years I have fought with them and they have made propaganda against me."
NATO Member States Germany, Britain and Partner States Georgia have said they will provide military support to Afghanistan alongside US forces post-2014 under a redefined Alliance mission. Aimal Faizi told Voice of America:
In principle we’re not opposed to NATO’s presence in Afghanistan after 2014 but NATO has to come up with proposals and we’ll discuss as we have with the US. We would not prefer bilateral agreements with every state but prefer an agreement with NATO that will cover all forces operating under NATO’s command.
Michael O’Hanlon at the Brookings Institution told VOA that the US will need NATO Allies in Afghanistan post-2014 as “the Obama Administration wants to keep US forces level [in Afghanistan] as low as possible partly for budgetary reasons and also because it’s important to have international legitimacy that comes with a multinational approach”.