By Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch
NATO Foreign Ministers were informed this week by the United Nations special envoy to Afghanistan, Jan Kubis, that the country has suffered from “a troubling rise” in the killing of civilians, with the figure rising by almost 30% in the first three months of 2013, contrasted with a drop by 12% in 2012. He said that he was particularly troubled that the Taliban had declared courthouses and their personnel targets and said this was “nothing less than a war crime”.
The following day, ISAF Commander General Dunford declared in his Statement on Security Situation that the insurgency was losing relevancy for many Afghans with 80% of the enemy attacks occurring in areas where less than 20% of the Afghan population lives. These statistics “highlight the improved security across the country,” including dramatic increases in the number of children in school and the share of Afghans who have access to healthcare.
The General added that as Afghan forces take control of security nationwide “the insurgency can no longer use the justification that it is fighting foreign occupiers – that message rings hollow,” and with the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) and Afghanistan Local Police (ALP) taking over responsibility for security, Afghans “will continue to undermine the influence and effectiveness of the insurgency”.
The claim of the insurgency’s decreasing relevancy was backed up by surveys showing that the Afghan people will not tolerate the oppressive policies imposed by the former Taliban Government and that, in some areas, this sentiment has manifested in anti-Taliban movements. “The coalition and the good people of Afghanistan won’t be satisfied until there is a secure, stable Afghanistan at peace with its neighbours. Despite the remaining challenges, the progress toward that goal is indisputable”, the General concluded.
General Dunford’s predecessor, General Allen has suggested that 13,600 US troops should remain in Afghanistan to assist with security, post-2014. Dunford, will not make his own recommendations until this summer’s ‘fighting season’ is over, claiming it will be a “bellweather” for the war’s success.
The ISAF’s Commander optimism is shared by Erlan Idrissov, Minister of Foreign Affairs in Kazakhstan. Writing in his CNN blog, he explains that “the view that chaos and violence inevitably await Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force in 2014 is misguided. Indeed, this sort of prognosis is a potentially dangerous self-fulfilling prophecy”.
Idrissov believes that Afghanistan can overcome its historical isolation, with assistance from friends and neighbours, and take its rightful place in the heart of Asia. He adds that Almaty, Kazakhstan’s second city, will this week host foreign ministers participating in the Istanbul Process in support of Afghanistan. Senior officials for the Ministerial Conference met on Thursday. Idrissov and Jan Kubis discussed the international community's efforts to rebuild Afghanistan, noting the need to further promote socio-economic recovery of the country.