Nigel Chamberlain, NATO Watch
Ambassador Simon Gass, NATO’s Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan since April 2011, gave his final briefing and press conference on 19 September 2012. His successor will be Ambassador Maurits Jochems.
The Ambassador travelled widely in the country in the last 18 months, visited more than two-thirds of Afghanistan's provinces and talked to many Afghans from the government, civil society and the military. He drew attention to three areas: the very substantial improvement in the capability of the Afghan Security Forces, the transition process and the international framework for supporting Afghanistan beyond 2014.
Afghan Security Forces
Gass claimed substantial improvements in the Afghan Security Forces with a growing sense of capability and confidence. Operations are being planned and conducted by the Afghan Army at a very high level with a lot of coordination with other bodies, including complex operations like airborne assaults. This progress will be maintained over the remaining two years and four months as the process of equipping and training the Afghan Forces continues. He is confident that “by the time that we get to the end of 2014 we will be handing over a situation in which the Afghan Security Forces are capable of maintaining security in their own country”.
The Transition Process
Gass explained that NATO is currently implementing its third tranche in the transition process with about 75% of Afghans now living in areas where the Afghan Security Forces are taking the lead for responsibility for security. The fourth tranche is expected by the autumn. ISAF will continue to support the Afghan Security Forces in those areas, if asked to do so.
The International Framework
Limited initial confidence that the international community would continue to support Afghanistan beyond 2014 has been bolstered by NATO and donor countries determination to build a supportive framework. At the NATO Chicago Summit in May, funding commitments were made to continue support for the Afghan Security Forces into the next decade, while the subsequent Tokyo conference in July agreed a very substantial development assistance package for Afghanistan.
Prospects for the Future
Now within sight of handing over a security platform which will be sufficient for Afghanistan to be stable beyond 2014, “it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be peaceful, because the insurgency is still there. The insurgency is still resilient. And to achieve peace in Afghanistan we'll need a political process”. Gass concluded:
So when transition is complete at the end of 2014, we'll leave behind a country which will still face multiple challenges. It will face the challenges of 30 years of conflict which have done so much damage to Afghanistan's institutions and its infrastructure. We'll leave behind a country which still grapples with extraordinarily deep and problematic poverty and an economy which is, frankly, weak. And also a country which still has a substantial narcotics problem, substantial corruption.
Q1 Norwegian News Agency: Has recent unrest been a major setback for the effort in Afghanistan? How successful a tool have the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) been in creating peace and prosperity in Afghanistan?
AMBASSADOR GASS: The reactions across the world to the recently released American film demonstrate how very strongly many Muslims feel about their religion. It doesn't excuse violence or destruction, but it isn't a strategic setback for our campaign in any sense. The PRTs are one of the success stories of Afghanistan. They have provided a degree of capability and support for provincial governors who, over the last years, have been trying to get their provincial administrations onto their feet. They've done a great deal in terms of capacity-building in different provinces of Afghanistan.
Q2 Reuters: How big a setback to NATO's strategy is yesterday's announcement that in some cases NATO-led forces training, working alongside Afghan Forces is going to be suspended? Is that a setback to the strategy?
AMBASSADOR GASS: I don't think that it's a strategic setback. We've had periods in the past where, because of particular levels of threat we've had to adjust the way in which we do partnering arrangements with our Afghan colleagues in the Army and the Police. It's certainly not ideal. It's not what we would have wanted to happen, but the security situation did justify us taking every measure we could to make sure that our forces were properly protected. If a commander feels that he needs to maintain his partnering operations then there needs to be a proper risk assessment, there needs to be adequate force protection arrangements, and they need to be signed off by a senior officer to take responsibility for that.
Q2 Danish News Agency: The British Defence Secretary said to The Guardian last week that things seem to be going so well in Helmand province that he feels maybe the British forces can come home earlier than previously planned. What is your current assessment of the situation in Helmand?
AMBASSADOR GASS: I'm not going to get into the question of British force deployments. But what I will say about Helmand is that if you look at the province now, compared with 18 months or two years ago, the security situation is a lot better. Now it is still very violent in a few areas of Helmand but in some areas the level of violence has fallen very sharply over the last couple of years. Progress is undoubtedly being made, but there is a very substantial insurgent presence in Helmand which we and our Afghan partners will be trying to deal with.
Q3 National Public Radio and CBS: Clearly, when these operations are curtailed it means that the ISAF side doesn't trust the Afghans. How do you think that's going to play out in the future? The Secretary General always says it has not shaken our confidence, but clearly now it has.
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: The problem of insider threat is a serious one. But the number of attacks on ISAF solders are still pretty small compared with the number of ISAF troops in the field and, of course, the ANSF troops and policemen which they're partnered with in their training. ISAF casualties have fallen this year by about 30% overall. The ‘Green on Blue’ attacks do make our troops more careful and more wary when they're dealing with their Afghan partners. This is a setback, but it's one which we will recover from. As time passes I hope that we will be able to roll back these additional precautionary measures that we have taken and get back to business as usual.
Q4: Geo Television Pakistan. What's your opinion about the neighbours of Afghanistan, reference to Iran and Pakistan in particular? Are they contributing to peace in Afghanistan or they are obstructing the peace efforts in Afghanistan?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: Afghanistan's neighbours all have slightly different interests.
Iran always wants to extend influence into Afghanistan and it does so by a variety of means. Some of them are perfectly legitimate, such as cultural ties, or economic links. Some of them, unfortunately, are not legitimate, such as providing weapons and support to some insurgent groups and that is something which is damaging, not in strategic terms, but it undermines confidence, I think, in Iran's good intentions as far as Afghanistan.
Pakistan faces an extraordinarily complex challenge, including a very difficult insurgency on its side of the border, which has cost the lives of many civilians and many military as well. It is not as simple as suggesting that the government of Pakistan could simply close down every group that might be conducting insurgent operations into Afghanistan. There has been a lot of effort in recent weeks to rebuild the military-to-military relations in a positive way following the setbacks of last year. On the political front, we are trying to reinforce the belief in Pakistan that stability in Afghanistan is good for Pakistan too.
Q5 Dutch Press Agency: Can Maurits Jochems expect an easier or more difficult job – than you?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: He is an extremely experienced diplomat with very strong credentials, both in NATO and in dealing with Afghanistan. I can't think of anybody who would be better placed to do the job with great success than Maurits Jochems.
Q6 El País. How do you see the evolution of the Taliban in operational terms? They attacked Camp Bastion on Friday and destroyed six Harrier jets. How are the political negotiations going?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: The insurgency is resilient. That said, the capability of the Taliban has certainly been hit very hard by both Afghan and ISAF operations over the last few years. I think they will still be capable for a long time to come, of conducting occasional spectacular operations of that sort. I now see signs of a political debate within the insurgency and I think that that is significant. There are a variety of channels and efforts to try to encourage closer contact and the possibility of a political process. They haven't reached the stage of a formal negotiation, but I think that the groundwork is being laid which may bear fruit at a later stage.
Q7 Spanish ABC: Is President Karzai our man there? Are we are going to support him or we're going to fight politically to maintain him in power?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: President Karzai is not our man in Afghanistan. He is the president, who is elected by the people of Afghanistan. We have a positive relationship with President Karzai but it has its ups and downs. We do fall out from time to time. We have disagreements about policy. We do have disputes. But President Karzai will answer to his people. And of course in 2014 there will be a presidential election. President Karzai has said that he will not stand at that point.
Q8 Associated Press: When did you personally find out about decision to suspend some training, mentoring operations?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: I was actually in London with my family until yesterday morning and therefore wasn't in Kabul when these decisions were being taken. I don't think that there is a particular problem in terms of who knew what when. It is natural for the commander to take that sort of decision, in my view.
Q9 NPR: Could you give us a candid view of the corruption problem?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: Corruption is a serious problem and ISAF has been working on it for a long time. It was raised both in the Chicago declaration and the Tokyo declaration. I'm cautiously encouraged that the government of Afghanistan is working hard on the execution of the elements of the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework and we also have the president's decree on counter-corruption. We have made no secret of the fact that the Afghan administration needs to raise its game on this.
Q10 Associated Press: Relations with President Karzai seem to be tensing up again. What do you think is the biggest issue in the relationship with Karzai right now?
AMBASSADOR SIMON GASS: I've seen substantially worse periods, frankly, in relations between ISAF and the government of Afghanistan than we're going through at the moment.