President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan will attend the Chicago Summit after endorsement from the Cabinet and its Defence Committee, and following NATO Secretary General Andres Fogh Rasmussen’s formal invitation on Tuesday.
The belated invitation appeared to have been linked to indications that supply routes to NATO forces in Afghanistan would be re-opened, particularly as the Secretary General said on 11 May that Pakistan had not been invited to Chicago. Extensive negotiations have been going on since their closure following an American airstrike in November which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.
Pakistan has demanded an unconditional apology for the deaths and an end to drone strikes which target Taliban and al-Qaida militants based inside Pakistan near the Afghan border. Military protection for the convoys and claims for compensation for repair to road surfaces, estimates range from $400 million to $1.5 billion, have further complicated the negotiations. Loss of secure business opportunities for contractors has also been problematic for the local economy, while militant groups have vowed to disrupt any resumption of NATO convoys.
Apparently, the Pakistan Parliament did not explicitly link these issues to reopening the supply routes. Matters have become more complicated because Washington has only expressed regret for the soldiers' deaths - stopping short of an outright apology - and continued with drone strikes.
Pakistan is said to be seeking heavy taxes on future NATO convoys. Pakistan's Junior Communications Minister Dost Mohammad Mazari has indicated a fee of $2,500 per truck but suggested that could be negotiated down during talks with the United States. The Washington Post said that Pakistani negotiators have proposed a fee of about $5,000 for each NATO shipping container and tanker.
An agreement on re-opening the supply route, possibly to be announced at the Chicago Summit, would facilitate the planning of withdrawal from Afghanistan while Islamabad would also be able to ask Washington to release outstanding Coalition Support Funds (CSF) worth $1.2 billion, which have been withheld since December 2010.
Playing down expectations, a US official told Reuters, on condition of anonymity, that: “There's a distinct possibility that we may not see an agreement before the end of this weekend. But talks are progressing and we do expect to reach a deal in the near future".
With the main focus of attention on the possible re-opening of the transit route through Pakistan it would be interesting to know what has been happening with NATO’s discussions to negotiate a transit route through Russia, as highlighted in a NATO Watch Briefing in March. A NATO Spokesperson told NATO Watch that it would be premature to anticipate the outcome of the discussions, still in their early stages, but:
NATO has started to plan for the eventual redeployment of ISAF equipment from Afghanistan. The Alliance is looking into a range of options, which could eventually include using Ulyanovsk as a transit point. This possibility is currently being discussed with our Russian partners. We appreciate the cooperation we already have with Russia on transit both to and from Afghanistan and we look forward to reinforcing it.